Bitcoin's 3% rebound to $106,000 faces a make-or-break scenario as traders confront a formidable supply wall between $106,000-$108,000. The cryptocurrency's inability to decisively breach this zone — which triggered a 27% plunge to $78,000 in January — raises concerns about another potential downturn. Market intelligence from Glassnode reveals weakening buying momentum, with Momentum Buyers' RSI plunging to 20 while Profit Takers surge to 77 RSI.
【96%】 of Bitcoin's circulating supply currently sits in profit territory, creating ripe conditions for mass sell-offs. Glassnode's supply cohort analysis shows investors increasingly locking in gains rather than accumulating positions — behavior typically preceding local tops. This profit-taking pressure could force BTC toward the psychologically crucial $100,000 support level, where concentrated liquidity awaits.
——"This trend often shows near local tops, as traders begin locking in gains instead of building exposure,"—— Glassnode's research team noted in their June 3 market update.
The four-hour chart reveals bearish convergence: • A rejection candle at $106,000 resistance • Ask orders piling up on CoinGlass' liquidation heatmap • Declining RSI across multiple timeframes Interestingly, the $100,000 level coincides with both psychological support and a high-density liquidity zone, making it the next logical battleground should the resistance hold. CryptoQuant's profit/loss metric shows only 4% of holders would remain underwater at this threshold.
Three factors amplify correction risks: 1. Overheated conditions with 96% supply in profit 2. Futures market leverage at yearly highs 3. Institutional flows slowing post-ETF approval TradingView data shows the daily chart needs a decisive close above $106,500 to invalidate the bearish scenario. Until then, the path of least resistance appears downward, with the $100,000 test becoming increasingly probable as profit-taking accelerates.
【Warning】The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, and investors should exercise caution when interpreting short-term price movements. All trading involves risk — conduct thorough research before making financial decisions.